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07/21/2007 - San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chase Utley went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run as the Philadelphia Phillies downed the San Diego Padres, 7-3, in the second of a four-game series at Petco Park.
Ryan Howard went 2-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored while Shane Victorino scored a pair of runs for the Phillies, who had lost four of five coming into the game.
Adam Eaton (9-6), making his first start against his former team, gave up just two runs on seven hits with three walks and six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings.
Eaton spent the first six seasons of his career in San Diego. He played last year with Texas before the Phillies signed him prior to the start of this season.
Adrian Gonzalez drove in a pair of runs and Russell Branyan also drove in a run for the Padres, who had won four of five coming into the contest.
Justin Germano (6-4) got the loss as he was charged with four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Trailing 2-1 heading into the fourth, the Phillies took the lead in the frame with three runs. Utley led off the inning with a walk, Howard followed with a single and Aaron Rowand then blasted a double to score Utley. Pat Burrell followed with a groundout to score Howard for the lead. Eaton later helped his cause with a single to center to score Rowand for a 4-2 advantage.
Philadelphia padded its lead in the seventh as Utley hit a two-out, two-run home run to straightaway center for a 6-2 lead.
San Diego had two men on base with one out in the seventh, but Ryan Madson struck out Michael Barrett and Branyan to end the inning.
The Phillies plated another run in the eighth as Jimmy Rollins' single scored Michael Bourn, but the Padres countered with a run in the bottom of the inning as Gonzalez's sac fly plated Geoff Blum to make it a 7-3 game.
Antonio Alfonseca, who got the final out of the eighth inning, closed out the ninth inning to pick up his seventh save of the season.
The Phillies grabbed a 1-0 lead in the first as Victorino hit a one-out single, stole second, and after Utley struck out, crossed the plate on a Howard single.
The Padres got the run back in the second as Khalil Greene led off with a double and later scored on a single from Branyan.
San Diego took a 2-1 lead in the third as Brian Giles led off with a walk, moved to third on a single from Milton Bradley and came home on a double from Gonzalez. Eaton limited the damage to just the one run as he got Mike Cameron to fly out to shallow right and then struck out Greene and Barrett to end the inning.
Game Notes
The Phillies have won 13 of their last 18 games against the Padres...Burrell had a 10-game hitting streak stopped...The Phillies are 37-8 this season when leading after six innings...It was Germano's fourth loss in his last five decisions...San Diego stranded 15 runners.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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